By Kevin Haas
Rock River Current
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ROCKFORD — The U.S. Census Bureau on Thursday said it undercounted Illinois’ population by nearly 2% during the 2020 census.
The bureau released that finding as part of its post-enumeration survey, which is meant to measure the accuracy of the census by independently surveying a sample of the population. It found that Illinois was one of 14 states estimated to have an undercount or overcount of its population during the census held once every decade.
There were six states, including Illinois, with estimated undercounts and eight with overcounts.
“Achieving an accurate count for all 50 states and (Washington, D.C.) is always a difficult endeavor, and these results suggest it was difficult again in 2020, particularly given the unprecedented challenges we faced,” Census Bureau Director Robert Santos said in a news release. “It is important to remember that the quality of the 2020 Census total population count is robust and consistent with that of recent censuses. However, we know there is still more work to do in planning future censuses to ensure equitable coverage across the United States and we are working to overcome any and all obstacles to achieve that goal.”
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The bureau said it released the new estimates in an effort to be transparent about its findings.
“Although none of the assessments alone can be considered definitive since no ‘true count’ of the population exists, today’s PES results suggest that some states experienced undercounts or overcounts,” Santos said.
The survey is from a small sample size, roughly 161,000 households out of approximately 141 million, according to the bureau. It doesn’t make any official changes to the census count.
Gov. JB Pritzker used the bureau’s finding to respond to critics who have pointed to outmigration and falling population numbers as a failure of his administration. The 2020 census showed Illinois had a population of about 12.8 million people, a decline of more than 18,000 since 2010.
The bureau’s undercount means that Illinois’ population grew by nearly 250,000 people and is above 13 million people for the first time in the state’s history, the governor said in a news release.
“I ran for governor on a promise to be our state’s best chief marketing officer and reverse the trend of outmigration we’ve seen over the past few decades. These latest numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau show that Illinois is now a state on the rise with a growing population,” Pritzker said in the news release. “From boundless economic opportunities, to booming economic development and leading institutions of higher education, Illinois has so much to offer our new residents.”
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The census count is a key component to determining how much federal funding the state receives and how much representation it receives in Congress.
“While it is disappointing that these numbers were not reflected in the initial count, I have already spoken to members of our congressional delegation and will work tirelessly to ensure Illinois receives its fair share of federal funding,” Pritzker said in the news release. “I look forward to celebrating this development with all Illinoisans, including those who routinely badmouth our state.”
Undercounts and overcounts
Here are the 14 states the U.S. Census Bureau estimates were undercounted or overcounted.
Undercounted: Arkansas (-5.04%), Florida (-3.48%), Illinois (-1.97%), Mississippi (-4.11%), Tennessee (-4.78%) and Texas (-1.92%).
Overcount: Delaware (+5.45%), Hawaii (+6.79%), Massachusetts (+2.24%), Minnesota (+3.84%), New York (+3.44%), Ohio (+1.49%), Rhode Island (+5.05%) and Utah (+2.59%)
This article is by Kevin Haas. Email him at khaas@rockrivercurrent.com or follow him on Twitter at @KevinMHaas.